The upcoming Telangana Legislative Assembly elections, voting is scheduled for November 30th. This time, there is a fierce competition between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). While the Congress claims victory, the BJP is striving for a comeback. Both parties have put in their full efforts to secure a win. However, there’s another opinion poll on the matter.
This opinion poll is conducted by the SSS Group, known for its accurate predictions. According to this poll, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to comfortably secure victory with a vote share of up to 42.5%, while the Congress is predicted to receive 36.5% and the BJP around 10.75%. This opinion poll was released on October 28th.
Close Contest on Some Seats
On some seats where a close contest may occur, the BJP is leading on three seats, while the Congress is ahead on two, and the BJP on one. The Silent Vote Factor (SVF), which accounts for 1.75%, has been observed in the state. The SSS Group’s report suggests that generally, around 80% of SVF supports the political party that generates trust and momentum among the public just before the elections.
Three Opinion Polls at Different Times
The organization has conducted three opinion polls at different time intervals. The first poll was conducted from July 18th to August 17th, followed by the second one from August 21st to October 30th. The third opinion poll was carried out from October 2nd to October 28th. This opinion poll was based on 265,000 samples collected from all 110 Assembly constituencies.
Approximately 2,400 samples were collected from each election constituency. The samples were collected randomly and selectively in a ratio of 60:40. While collecting selective samples, the SSS Group held discussions with farmers, tenants, students, unemployed youth, retired government employees, private sector employees, small business owners, wage seekers, builders, RTI employees, auto drivers, Anganwadi/ASHA/Davakara workers, and other groups.
This time, the vote share for the BJP appears to be decreasing by 4.3% compared to the 2018 results. Nonetheless, the BJP is leading ahead of the Congress and the BJP. It’s worth noting that prior to the 2018 elections, the SSS Group had predicted that the BJP (then TRS) would win between 85 and 89 seats, and the party won 88 seats. Similarly, it had said that the Congress would win 19 to 20 seats, and the party won 19 seats. The BJP was expected to win one seat, and it won just one seat.
In the recent Karnataka elections, the organization’s opinion poll also predicted that the BJP would win between 83 and 84 seats and it secured 66 seats. Similarly, the Congress was expected to win between 117 and 124 seats, and it won 135 seats. JDS (J) was predicted to win between 23 and 30 seats and eventually won 19 seats.